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Policy uncertainty a risk to U.S. growth
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Transcript
**ĀMarket take**
**Weekly video\_20250313**
**Wei Li**
**Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock**
**Opening frame: Whatās driving markets? Market take** **ā special edition**
**Camera frame**
In this special edition of Market Take, I will dig into whatās behind the recent market volatility ā especially in the U.S.
**Title slide: A disconnect with economic fundamentals**
1. **S. recession fears sparked a stock pullback.**
We actually donāt think the selloff is consistent with the fundamental picture. You look at the strong job creation, you look at the still-good earnings expectations for this year, 12% \[earnings growth\] for \[the\] U.S. equity market \[according to data from Bloomberg as of 12/03/2025\]. They are consistent with an economy that is holding up okay.
Now, a rapid rotation out of very crowded positions contributed to stock market pressure in recent days. And the very high level of policy uncertainty further led to risk premia repricing, i.e. investors demanding more for holding risk in this environment. But over the six-to-12 month horizon we expect some of those \[uncertainties\] to dissipate.
1. **Tech valuations look more compelling**
The 'magnificent seven' forward \[price-earnings ratio\] in aggregate is \[around\] the same level as it was during the time of ChatGPTās rollout.
When you look at the estimates for \[the magnificent sevenās\] \[2025-26\] earnings, revenue, operating margins, they havenāt worsened so far this year, notably. If you look at their \[capital expenditure\] commitments itās even increased versus what was already a record year last year \[according to data from Bloomberg as of 12/03/2025\].
1. **Selective opportunities in global markets and gold**
We recently closed \[our\] underweight in European equities and we keep our tactical overweight in Chinese equities as some of these unloved and underowned exposures start to play catch-up.
And we also find that in this environment of inflationary pressure and high debt, gold has proven to be a better diversifier compared to long-term \[government bonds\].
**Outro: Hereās our Market Take**
The bottom line is we donāt think the market selloff is supported by economic fundamentals. Yet in the very near-term, very elevated policy uncertainty and positioning can keep the pressure up.
Over the horizon of six to 12 months, I would spotlight opportunities in tech that has become more attractive in valuation and also observe that gold can play a better role as diversifier than \[long-term\] \[U.S.\] Treasuries in portfolios.
**Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary**
**General disclosure:** This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of March 2025 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.
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Markets are doubting U.S. growth and equity strength. Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, explains why we see a disconnect between market concerns and actual economic conditions.
[Read the Global Weekly Commentary Read the Global Weekly Commentary](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/publications/weekly-commentary)
[
SYSTEMATIC INVESTING
Systematic Equity Outlook: Trading policy uncertainty
Whatās ahead for equity markets? BlackRockās systematic equity experts reveal whatās driving their outlook amid increased trade policy uncertainty.
Read our equity outlook Read our equity outlook
](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/systematic-equity-market-outlook "Systematic Equity Outlook: Trading policy uncertainty")
[
SYSTEMATIC INVESTING
Navigating the (new) conundrum
Our fixed income market outlook explores the Fed pause, the potential for further yield curve steepening, and what it means for bond investors.
Read our fixed income outlook Read our fixed income outlook
](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/systematic-fixed-income-outlook "Navigating the (new) conundrum")
[
ALTERNATIVES
What scares the S&P 500?
Linking trading volumes in single-day S&P 500 options to macro news release dates has helped us understand shifts in how important the market believes these releases are for the broad equity market.
Learn more Learn more
](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/what-scares-sp500 "What scares the S&P 500?")
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Transcript
I believe in capitalism, that in the long run it's the best economic model in the world. But what disturbed me as I wrote this letter, we never talk about retirement. It is not a conversation we're having, and that is why it's becoming a bigger and bigger problem. If individuals had better information on how to navigate it over their 30- or 40-year journey of work, they then can build the adequacy.
This material is for informational purposes and is prepared by BlackRock, is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of date of publication and are subject to change. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable and are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. This material may contain āforward lookingā information that is not purely historical in nature. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not indicative of current or future results. This information provided is neither tax nor legal advice and investors should consult with their own advisors before making investment decisions. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.
In theĀ **U.S.**, this material is intended for public distribution.
MKTGSH0424U/M-3540279
Larry Fink on rethinking retirement
-----------------------------------
Larry Fink considers the challenge of retirement, why it has become an increasingly difficult proposition for too many, and what opportunities exist and will be developed to help people achieve their financial freedom.
[Listen to the full podcast episode Listen to the full podcast episode](/us/individual/about-us/blackrock-retirement)
ABOUT US
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**_Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the_** [**_summary prospectuses_**](/us/individual/library?materialType=summary+prospectus "summary prospectuses") **_which may be obtained visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Mutual Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing._**
**_Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal._**
Investing in commodity-related companies may increase volatility. Price movements are outside of the Fundās control and may be influenced by weather and climate conditions, livestock disease, war, terrorism, political conflicts and economic events, interest rates, currency and exchange rates, government regulation and taxation. Commodity futures trading may be illiquid. In addition, suspensions or disruptions of market trading in the commodities markets and related futures markets may adversely affect the value of the Fund. Funds that concentrate investments in specific industries, sectors, markets or asset classes may underperform or be more volatile than other industries, sectors, markets or asset classes and than the general securities market. Real estate investment trusts ("REITs") are subject to changes in economic conditions, credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/ developing markets or in concentrations of single countries. There is no guarantee that dividends will be paid. The iShares Funds are not sponsored, endorsed, issued, sold or promoted by Barclays, Bloomberg Finance L.P., BlackRock Index Services, LLC, Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc., European Public Real Estate Association (āEPRAĀ® ā), FTSE International Limited (āFTSEā), ICE Data Services, LLC, India Index Services & Products Limited, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Japan Exchange Group, MSCI Inc., Markit Indices Limited, Morningstar, Inc., The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc., National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (āNAREITā), New York Stock Exchange, Inc., Russell or S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. None of these companies make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Funds. With the exception of BlackRock Index Services, LLC, who is an affiliate, BlackRock Investments, LLC is not affiliated with the companies listed above. Neither FTSE nor NAREIT makes any warranty regarding the FTSE NAREIT Equity REITS Index, FTSE NAREIT All Residential Capped Index or FTSE NAREIT All Mortgage Capped Index; all rights vest in NAREIT. Neither FTSE nor NAREIT makes any warranty regarding the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Real Estate ex-U.S. Index, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Europe Index or FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global REIT Index; all rights vest in FTSE, NAREIT and EPRA.āFTSEĀ®ā is a trademark of London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under license. Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments.
The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, āBlackRockā). This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. In the U.S., this material is intended for public distribution.
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BIIM0325U/M-4325731